Is John the Key?

So the million dollar question has to be "Is John Key the next Prime Minister of New Zealand?"

And the million dollar answer is 'If enough people want it."

Then that begs the question 'Why would they want it?"

Looking at the situation as it stands, it is possible that Labour have become out of touch. However it does not follow that John Key is the only alternative to Helen Clark.
because there is nothing evidentially to suggest that National are any less out of touch than Labour are.

For example the idea of limited sales of SOEs - technically a viable concept, but evidently frightening to the voter who is scarred by memories of losing 'the family Silver' under Muldoon. (to quote my old man).

Kiwisaver, on the other hand was a positive and widely welcomed initiative.
Even when Labour introduced the EFB - a complete shambles of a Bill - the opposition failed to capitalise on it,

So it is evident that National are on the back foot. Not only because they have a paucity of modern, forward-thinking policies, but also because the electorate is still psychologically averse to National as the Labour alternative.

Then there is the albatross around National's neck - the 'Hollow Men' accusation.

The most sympathetic interpretation of the EB fiasco is that it was a strategic miscalculation. The least sympathetic is that it was an attmept to 'rort' the election.

Even though Labour have their own albatross - the Pledge Card fiasco - they appear hell-bent on pretending it was perfectly alright, and that the changes to the law under the EFB represents the lesser of the evils - ie it will stamp out National's 'rorting'.

Then there is the issue of leadership. Helen Clark is a leader as we all understand the term. This is the strongest suit that Labour has. The fact that she will not be around much longer (IMO) is frankly so frighteneing to the Labour Party and to New Zealanders that they have refused to countenance it. So the election will be fought on the polite fiction that Helen is here to stay.

In contrast, Key is yet to prove his leadership credentials. Sure he seems like a nice enough chap. But his credibility as a potential prime Minister is severely hampered by this 'nice' image.
coupled by a dearth of imaginative policies that can capture the imagination of the voter.

So as far as the voter is concerned, all is ok. Helen Clark is a safe pair of hands, and Key is a nice enough chap, but - well - not to be trusted.

As it stands, this perception is all John Key's fault. The job of the opposition is 'to oppose'. John Key has failed to do so with any traction. Helen Clark, on the other hand has merely to continue 'business as usual' to ensure her own survival. Agian this perception goes to the heart of what constitutes effective leasership.

Yje electorate is not stupid. It knows Hemen Clark has her faults. But it is waiting for a leafer with the balls to face her. Anything less is basically pointless. Nice guys really do come last.

I think at the moment the playing field is pretty level.

If I were to use a domestic analogy, Labour is the love-rat husband who the spouse with low-esteem will cling to for the sake of the kids. Key is the new guy on the block - the promise of a new beginning, but carries the doubt that he has the 'x-factor' to convince the wife to risk it all and leave.

Labour may rely on the 'It's better the devil you know' argument, National may suggest 'You can do better.'

Simpy, it is all about whether the kiwi electorate has the requisite courage and high enough self-esteem to trust its future to an unknown quantity.